Iraq's Constitutional Crisis and Abadi's Chances of Emerging from It: "The Next Elections as a Model"

Joint research carried out by both;

Dr. Omar Abdul Sattar Mahmoud

Dr. Abdul Nasser Al-Mahdawi

Dr. Zaid Abdel Wahab

Contents....

Introduction

The first section.. The importance of the Constitution

The second section... Disruption of the Constitution

Section Three... Election Opportunity and Internationalization Theses

The end

Introduction

After 2003, Iraq moved from a state without a constitution to a constitution without a state, and with this major transition a local, regional, and international conflict prevailed over the shape, role, identity, and political system of Iraq, which caused the disruption of the new constitution. Despite the vote on the Iraqi constitution in 2005, Maliki, who became prime minister from 2006 to 2014, was able to disrupt the Iraqi constitution and deal with it selectively that disrupted the political process and led to the shafts of failure.

In this study, we will address the importance of the constitution and the crisis of disrupting the work of its articles that Abadi inherited from Maliki, and the chances of Abadi emerging from this crisis if he can win the next elections in light of the recent Iranian protests.

The theoretical framework of the study;

The problem with the research is that Iraq is suffering from a constitutional crisis that has made its reality contrary to its constitution, as the Baghdad government still plays a central (sectarian) role away from the federal constitution.

The premise of the research is that without Iraq's exit from its constitutional crisis and the harmony of its reality with the Constitution, Iraq will continue to revolve in the orbit of chaos, pressures and instability as a result of the international, regional and local conflict over the nature of governance in Iraq. The research on the basis of this problem and hypothesis raises the question of Abadi's ability to emerge from the constitutional crisis by winning the upcoming elections, the holding of which is still the subject of controversy among the conflicting political blocs, all of which have failed to build an Iraqi constitutional model and remained captive to the regional and international conflict that has left Iraq in one valley and its constitution in another. As for the research plan and methodology, the descriptive historical approach is the master of the situation with foresight and future reading, especially in the place of elections, and analysis of some texts, and the research plan was from an introduction, four detectives and a conclusion, in the introduction the research dealt with the theoretical framework of the study and the problem of research and identified the most hypothesis that the research deems appropriate, and in the first section the importance of the constitution was addressed, and in the second section was addressed the party that disrupted the constitution and that still deliberately disrupts it in many articles, and in the third section dealt with the opportunity of elections And the theses of internationalization, through Abadi's ability to hold and win elections, hence the chances of internationalizing the Iraqi crisis under the current Iraqi situation, and in the conclusion he explained the result of the research and the extent to which it matches the main hypothesis. One of the problems of this research is that the subject expands in its content to volumes of information, and the selection of some of them and their indication of the direction of the research is a great challenge for researchers who have spared no effort in tracking this information and reading it correctly and then trying to anticipate the future due to the data of this research. What was right is the conciliation of Allah the Almighty, and error and omission are a feature that belongs to us human beings.

Section I

The importance and value of the Iraqi constitution

The Iraqi Constitution of 2005 is one of the important constitutions in the Arab and Islamic world, and its importance - despite the fact that it was legislated during the US occupation of Iraq - is held because of its richness in the articles that preserve the administration of the state and human rights, and considering that it establishes the modern democratic system in Iraq. The Constitution is the basic and supreme law of the State, and it has a great status as the source on which all laws are based, and it has the status of objective and formal transcendence. The Constitution is of a special nature that confers on it the character of sovereignty and transcendence, as it establishes the rules and principles on which the system of government of the State is based, defines the public authorities therein, defines their functions, establishes the limits and restrictions governing all multiple activities, establishes public freedoms and rights and arranges the basic guarantees for their protection. Hence the right of its rules to be at the top of the legal structure of the State. The Constitution, with its legal rules, is the creator of institutions and defines competencies, and in general establishes the political system in the State, which is the creator of the legal system in it, and its rules may not be violated by any material or legal act. Despite the campaign against the enactment of the constitution in Iraq after the occupation, it remains the major document contracted by the Iraqis under international auspices.

What is the Constitution, what are its definitions, and where did you derive its name?? To monitor the linguistic significance of the Constitution in the Arabic language the meaning of Duster in the crown of the bride (1) The Constitution by annexation: neglected by the essence. Al-Saghani said: It is the name of the version applied to the groups such as the notebooks, from which they are edited and in which the laws and controls of the king are collected Persian Arabized constitutions. The book used it in the one who administered the order of King Goza. In the keys to science of Ibn Kemal Pasha: The Constitution: The Copy of the Community and then he was nicknamed the Grand Minister to whom he refers in what is drawn in the conditions of the people for being the owner of this booklet: Basically: the Minister: The Constitution. Shaykhna said: Its origin is the conquest, but it included what Arabs did to join the weights of the Arabs, so the conquest does not have a pure line as Hariri claimed. The public was fond of calling it the meaning of permission, and it was said (2) that the origin of the word constitution is Persian, so if we search for the linguistic origin of the word (constitution) we will find that it is not Arabic germinated or original, it is a word whose origin is due to the Persian language and (constitution) by including the dal is a compound word consisting of two syllables: ((dst)) meaning a rule and ((wur)) meaning the owner of the rule. The Constitution defines terminology (3) as the set of provisions that indicate the form of the state, its system of government, its powers, the way these powers are distributed, the statement of its competences, and the statement of the rights and duties of citizens. This definition of a constitution applies to the definition of constitutional law; because constitutional law is the constitutional provisions applicable in a country, and the constitution applied in a country is the set of constitutional provisions specific to that country.

The Constitution has a great importance in the life of States and peoples(4), both legally and from the social, political, economic and cultural aspects, where the Constitution is located at the top of the legal pyramid of the State, and the importance of the Constitution lies in the fact that it deals with very important and necessary matters in the State, since all the countries of the world today own the Constitution (whether written or unwritten) because it defines the political organization of the State (the main framework of the components of the political system), and the definitions it has presented are multiple. The constitutional jurists of the Constitution, but they unanimously agree that the Constitution deals with fundamental matters, it determines the nature of the state and the form of its system of government, as well as its flag, capital, language and intellectual and political doctrine, and the Constitution deals with the three powers (legislative, executive and judicial) in terms of their compositions and competencies, and the nature of the constitutional relationship between them, and the Constitution regulates political and civil rights and freedoms, whether at the level of the individual or civil society institutions, and whenever the Constitution includes in its texts the principles of human rights the more More democratically, and more importantly the application of these texts, texts that do not find their way into implementation are considered broken texts. The Constitution is the social contract that peoples grant to themselves with the aim of organizing their public affairs and designing systems and structures of government in them, it is rare in the modern world to have a state that does not have a constitution. The study of the way constitutions originate is limited to written constitutions only because unwritten constitutions arise through custom or case law. A follower of the history of the origin of the constitution finds its traces in the Old Testament since Aristotle who compiled one hundred and eight constitutions that regulate political life in Greek and other cities, which indicates that some ancient cities knew constitutions. That contract whose content reflects the prevailing values and aspirations of the people of all categories. The Constitution regulates political and civil rights and freedoms, both at the level of the individual and state institutions, and the more the Constitution contains in its texts the principles of human rights, the more democratic it is, and most importantly the application of these texts, the texts that do not find their way to implementation are considered stalled texts and according to the opinion of constitutional jurists, there are two criteria for the definition of the first constitution depends mainly on the external form of the constitution or the body that issued it, and is called the formal criterion and according to it, A constitution is a set of legal rules that can only be established or amended after following special procedures that differ from those of ordinary law. The second criterion depends on the content or subject matter of the rule and is called the objective criterion, and according to the objective criterion the Constitution means the set of legal rules that regulate the exercise of political power in the State and regulate the external form of the State, the different authorities therein, the function of each of them and the relations between them.

Hence, the commitment to the Constitution is in accordance with the three powers: the legislative branch adopts the constitution at the age of the two laws, the executive branch is represented by the presidency of the republic, which monitors the performance of the government in accordance with the constitution or otherwise, and the executive branch represented by the government (the presidency of the Council of Ministers and ministers) adheres to the laws in force emanating from the constitution in all its joints, as well as the judiciary, which adopts the laws in issuing judgments. The separation of powers is a criterion for civilized states, unlike Iraq, which has a wide influence of the executive branch represented by the federal government on the legislative and judicial branches, which impedes their proper functioning. The importance of the current constitution lies in the fact that it (5) came for a democratic, pluralistic Iraq that enjoys stability and peace based on voluntary union (federalism) and respects the Basic Law, the laws in force, human rights and all international obligations, and there is no place for discrimination on the basis of sex, color, race, nationality, religion or thought, and in which women occupy a human role commensurate with the value of man in life.

For the sake of a neutral Iraqi state that does not enter into wars, in which constitutional institutions are established, civil society and the rule of law are built, and it moves away from idolatry and military or individual rule, and in order to avoid disasters caused by the centralization of power and totalitarian rule that contradicts the rules of democratic governance, and for an Iraq in which all nationalities and followers of religions enjoy freedom, stability and security, and recognizes the other and respects the rights of peoples to self-determination, and establishes the principles of peaceful rotation of power, there must be a constitution for the country to serve as the law. The basis or supreme law in the federal Iraqi state is subject to everyone and invoked by the ruler and the governed. This is because one of the first elements of the rule of law is the existence of a permanent constitution, the separation of powers, the consolidation of the principle of the rule of law, respect for the hierarchy of legal norms, the protection of the general rights of citizens and the independence of the judiciary.

Constitutional rules occupy the highest place in the hierarchy of the legal system in the entire State, as they transcend all other laws, regulations, instructions or decisions taken by public authorities, including the legislative authority.

Public rights and freedoms occupy a high social value in the world of people by being one of the highest human values, if not their name at all, because they are linked to them in existence and non-existence, man's work to believe and adhere to them, and they are also elements of man and cannot be abandoned in any way, as they must be preserved. All the revolutions and uprisings carried out by the peoples against the arbitrariness of the ruling authorities were aimed at taking away these rights and freedoms and thus were incorporated into constitutional and legal texts that guarantee their exercise and protection. The Permanent Iraqi Constitution of 2005 (6) is one of the modern constitutions that has given a wide deal of attention to public rights and freedoms, providing explicit and detailed provisions guaranteeing those rights and freedoms.

The Constitution's inclusion of these provisions gives them sanctity and respect by all rulers, rulers and governed, since its rules transcend all laws in force in the State. The constitutional text (7) affirms the right to life, security and liberty reveals the status and status that the legislator considers for the individual, which is one of the highest human rights, and the obligation to abide by them entails the provision of all ways and means that make all kinds of arbitrariness and injustice contradict and contradict these principles, and thus provide a constitutional right for the individual not only to protect him and uphold his rights, but goes beyond the possibility of prosecuting and holding the authorities accountable, and we note that any violation or marginalization of any of these rights is exposed. The ruler and the authority to stay away from human rights applications, put them in the category of accusation, expose them to responsibility, and thus provide a revolutionary base for their overthrow and accountability nationally and internationally.

The individual's right to life, security and liberty is certain and cannot be denied or restricted... However, the existence of human guarantees to promote dignity, safety and security constitute complements to the enjoyment of this right, and these guarantees and supplements stand out in personal freedom, personal privacy, inviolability of the dwelling, equality before the law, the inadmissibility of the exercise of detention or restriction of liberty without a judicial order, the prohibition of all forms of violence and arbitrariness in the family, school, society, and other rights.8

On the other hand, the Constitution establishes general rules, directives and restrictions that should be taken into account by the legislative authority in the process of legislating laws, and these restrictions may be formalities related to the conditions and formalities that must be taken into account when legislating and promulgating laws, or are substantive rules, directives and restrictions related to the subject and content of the law. Objective rules and guidelines reflect the political, social and economic values prevailing at the time of the drafting of the Constitution as well as the nature of the system of government and the manner in which power is rotated.

Despite the great value and consideration of this Constitution, successive governments from enacting it for the time of writing these words deal with it selectively, as what serves their vision and interests works with it, and what contradicts it neglects it if they do not address it with practices contrary to it. This condemned the Jaafari government in 2005 and the duration of the two sessions of the Maliki government from 2006 to 20014, and even Abadi, who inherited the disruption of the constitution, did not work to reduce this disruption during the three years of his term, and to shed detailed light on the disabled articles in the Iraqi constitution, we dealt with the second section of this research.

The second section

Disruption of the Constitution

We find it necessary to warn that the most disruptive body to the Constitution are successive governments that have dealt with the Constitution with a double standard, as the articles that serve their interests and agree with their vision work with them, and the articles that narrow their whims or filter their performance disrupt it, as is the case with the absence of the Council of Federation according to Article 65, which has not yet been enacted despite its importance, which is a filter that scrutinizes, filters and formulates laws issued by the House of Representatives correctly, and consists of competent elements and experience in Area code (9).

In the Political Forum of the website Durar Iraq (10) it is shown that the informal disruption of the constitution is by the influential in power, it is noted that those in power do not officially announce the cessation of the work of the provisions of the constitution, but their will is directed towards neglecting the application of the provisions of the constitution partially or completely, or the application of the texts of the constitution in a way that contradicts their content.

That is what we observe in dictatorial regimes. Informal disruption can be seen by studying the constitutional reality of the state and comparing it to political reality. If it is found that there is a distinction or difference between the content of the constitutional texts and the reality of the exercise of power in a particular area, then the actual disruption of the Constitution is achieved.

Law professor Dr. Abdul Hassan al-Saadi says about constitutional irregularities in Iraq after it was legislated in 2005 in a critical study; (11)

First, the constitutional articles that promised to promulgate a law are many, and they are limited to twenty-eight articles, and such a law is necessary to indicate the content and details of the constitutional article and its ease of application. Let's take a few examples. Article XVIII, fourth paragraph, authorized dual nationality (multi-nationality) and excluded from this plurality those who held sovereign political or high-security positions, as the text says that they must renounce their acquired nationality. This is regulated by law and no law has been issued to indicate these centres and to indicate the high security centres. If it is said that these centers are the President of the Republic, the Prime Minister, the Ministers and the deputies, and that the security centers and the heads of the security and intelligence agencies... etc., does the text include agents and consultants... Etc?

The comment on this article is that the failure to renounce their acquired nationalities is considered to have committed a serious constitutional violation that results in the invalidity of their actions, because the violation of any law entails the invalidity of the work, the average citizen if he violates the law entails the illegality of his act in which he is held accountable, in the sense that he commits a crime, and this legal principle established in the science of law does not exclude anyone, rulers and convicts, and more dangerous than that the violation of the Constitution by the rulers It clearly means not respecting this Constitution and not recognizing it, especially since officials at the level of the highest political centers have been sworn in and whose content is to preserve the Constitution and apply it honestly and sincerely. The political justifications and circumstances of the State are of no value to established legal realities with clear principles.

Second: Article VII: The approach of takfir, ethnic cleansing, terrorism and racism has been prepared for entities to incite, pave the way, promote or justify, in particular, the Saddamist Ba'ath, and this is regulated by law, and on the basis of this text, which contains absolute phrases that need to be specified and which is supposed to be done by law.

Third: Article (30) Second: The content of this article guarantees the state social and health security... And providing housing for citizens.. This is regulated by law, and no such thing has been achieved and no law has been promulgated.

There are also important institutions and facilities that the Constitution has promised to establish and none of which have been achieved, for example:

1- Article (156): A legislative council called the Council of Federation shall be established that includes representatives of regions and governorates that are not organized in regions and this shall be regulated by law, and this Council has not been established, and such a Council may be necessary next to the House of Representatives and ensure the work of this Council, and an increase in the representation of the people, and no law has been issued in this regard.

2- Article (151): A Council of State may be established to specialize in the function of administrative justice.

It is strange that the constitutional legislator used the phrase may, this phrase justifies not establishing it, but we believe that such a council is necessary, because the administrative judiciary achieves more justice and is the fortress of public rights and freedoms, because it adjudicates cases in which individuals are parties, or the public administration regarding the actions of the administration that affect the rights and freedoms of individuals, with the power and freedom of this judiciary to devise solutions and establish legal principles represented in the judiciary of compensation or the judiciary of cancellation, and makes the administration think more From once in the exercise of its material and legal activity. This is what happened in France, Egypt and other countries.

3 With regard to articles (57, 58 and 59) dealing with the duration of the legislative term regarding the general budget, and the invitation of the House of Representatives to an extraordinary session, specifically the legislative chapter and the quorum required in the convening of the House of Representatives, these articles have been violated on many occasions.

4 With regard to Article (60), which deals with the submission of draft laws, where the legislator used the letter (f), by saying it from the President of the Republic and the Council of Ministers, the first is that this is done by the President of the Republic (or) the Council of Ministers. In the same article, secondly, proposals for laws are made by ten members of the Chamber of Deputies, and the number is more appropriate.

5 With regard to Article (126), which deals with the proposal to amend the Constitution, where the text says to the President of the Republic and the Council of Ministers together or to one-fifth (1/5) members of the House of Representatives to propose amending the Constitution, and the Council of Ministers and the President of the Republic may not agree. If the legislator had used the letter (or) instead of (f), it would have been more appropriate, since the Council of Ministers had the right to submit the proposal individually, especially since the amendment of the Constitution had become necessary based on the trends of public opinion.

6 Regarding Article (127): It deals with the exploitation of influence by the President of the Republic, the Prime Minister, ministers, members of the House of Representatives, members of the judiciary and holders of special degrees. It is more appropriate not to decide on a special legal article for it, and instead it is forbidden to exploit influence in its proper place, that is, in the responsibilities of any one of those in the section devoted to it.

The period that witnessed the arbitrary disruption of the Constitution and the laws in force that underpin it is the duration of the term of the term of Jaafari and the successive terms of Maliki, especially in the file of human rights, the Constitution in the file of human rights has blatantly disrupted the performance of the Ministry of Interior, the spread of secret prisons and the torture of innocent detainees. Prof. Dr. Tayseer Abdul Jabbar Al-Alusi mentions in a preliminary human rights report on secret prisons;12

A sectarianly systematic philosophy is revealed by the distribution of prisons, especially here (secret) prisons, because of their violations, atrocities and violations of the rule of law and its procedural duties that protect rights and justice. They are essentially distributed among areas characterized by a majority of a particular sect, with reference to the areas of Salah al-Din and Samarra and areas near (liberated) cities such as Fallujah, Ramadi and Mosul.

The Belgian organization Bamru, the security organizations and Human Rights Watch have documents on these secret detention facilities, and one of the characteristics of the cases of arrest, as we have observed in the reports referred to, is the phenomenon of the failure to register the names of the detainees, and they are detained without investigations or judicial procedures, and without the presence of sound procedural elements; the absence of a prosecutor or lawyers and usually follow these secret prisons, as we mentioned according to the reports and living evidence of sectarian militias directly in all their details.

The second (freedoms) refers in article 37

First of all:

(a) The freedom and dignity of the human person is inviolable.

(b) No one may be arrested or interrogated except by a judicial decision.

(c) All types of psychological and physical torture and inhuman treatment shall be prohibited, and no confession obtained by coercion, threat or torture shall be expressed, and the victim shall claim compensation for the material and moral damage suffered in accordance with the law.

Second: The State shall ensure the protection of the individual from intellectual, political and religious coercion.

These terms have become shameful in the face of the serious violations to which human beings are subjected in Iraq, as the prisons narrow their inhabitants and make the place that seats four people more than twenty people, and the investigation is conducted by torture and threats to torture relatives, and the recording of testimonies is replete with lies and delusional confessions extracted by coercion, intimidation and torture, and trials are sham and humiliating and do not represent the minimum professional standards, and even made matters worse that the judge in some special courts tortures with his own hands, and sometimes even rules without The presence of a defense lawyer, while the financial corruption that afflicts the detention and investigation bodies has occurred and there is no shame, the detainee is sold to his relatives enabling not to pay attention to a convicted or unconvicted Konakh, but bribes in the investigation and trial corps have become known by all Iraqis.

Other participants in the political process were not satisfied with these violations of the Constitution and the law, but some of them addressed them in the media and in their private meetings, considering that the President of the Republic is the competent authority to monitor compliance with the Constitution as Article 67 states: "The President of the Republic is the head of state and the symbol of the unity of the nation, represents the sovereignty of the country, and ensures compliance with the Constitution, and preserves the independence, sovereignty, unity and territorial integrity of Iraq, in accordance with the provisions of the Constitution." He called it Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki's practices and abuses of the constitution and the laws in force, and his ongoing human rights abuses that "have shamed Iraq," as reported by Al-Akhbar.14

The irony is that the regimes that followed the American occupation were all suffering from the oppression and authority of the former regime and they suffered greatly in its prisons and detention centers as well as the torture that was often practiced on them, and today when they took over the reins and managed to power, the former regime was not only an example to them but surpassed it in their arbitrariness and crimes in the human rights file, torture, prisons, arbitrary arrests and forced disappearance have all become the characteristic of these abhorrent sectarian regimes.

In order to monitor the provisions of the Iraqi Constitution (15) related to the organization of the federal system and to clarify the powers of both the region and the federal government, articles (105-121) were allocated. Article 105 came to establish a public body to guarantee the rights of regions and governorates that are not organized in a region to participate fairly in the management of state and regional institutions. Article 106 establishes a public body for the management of imports. Article 107 establishes the Federal Service Council with the task of regulating the affairs of the public service. Article 108 concerns the creation of independent bodies.

Article 109 stipulates that the federal authorities shall preserve the unity, integrity, independence, sovereignty and federal democratic system of Iraq. Article 110 allocates sovereign powers, which are all those related to foreign policy, such as diplomatic representation, negotiation, conclusion of treaties, agreements, etc., and related to the general security of the country in order to ensure the protection of the borders and the management of the armed forces, and everything related to financial, customs and trade policies, the determination of standards, pints and balances, the regulation of matters of nationality, naturalization, residence, the right to political asylum and others, the regulation of dams, water resources, the census and general statistics. Article 111 relates to oil and gas as the property of the whole people, and its administration is vested in the federal and provincial governments as in article 112. Article 113 concerns the management of antiquities and is the prerogative of the federal State in cooperation with the governments of regions and provinces that are not organized in a region. Article 114 defines the common powers between the territorial government and the federal government, namely; customs administration, regulation of electrical energy sources, environmental policy-making, health policy-making, educational policy-making, regulation and distribution of inland water resources policies, and article 115 relates to everything not provided for in the exclusive competences of the federal authorities that are the prerogative of the regions and governorates that are not organized in a region and other powers shared by the federal government and the regions in which priority shall be given to the law of regions and provinces that are not organized in a region in the The state of disagreement between them. Article 116 states: The federal system in the Republic of Iraq consists of the capital, regions, decentralized provinces and local administrations.

Article 117 recognizes the Kurdistan Region and its current powers. It approves the New Territories in accordance with its provisions. Article 118 requires the Chamber of Deputies to enact a law specifying the executive procedures for the formation of regions. Indeed, in order to organize the process of forming regions, the Iraqi Council of Representatives has issued Law No. 13 of 2008 on executive procedures for the formation of regions, which stipulates in its second article the following: The formation of any territory shall be made by referendum and the application shall be submitted in one of the following ways:

First: A request submitted by one third of the members of each of the provincial councils formed under the Constitution that aims to form the region.

Second: An application submitted by ten voters in each of the provinces that aim to form the region.

Third: In the event of an application for the accession of a governorate to a territory, the application shall be submitted by one third of the members of the provincial council, together with the approval of one third of the members of the provincial legislative council.

Other materials are of great importance to publish as is;

Article 119: Each governorate or more shall have the right to form a territory upon request for a referendum on it, submitted in one of two ways:

First: A third of the members of each of the provincial councils that aim to form the region are requested.

Second: Ten voters in each of the provinces that aim to form the region are asked to do so.

Article 120 The Region shall draw up a Constitution which shall determine the structure of the powers of the Region, its powers and the mechanisms for exercising those powers, provided that it does not conflict with this Federal Constitution.

Rule 121

First: The authorities of the Territories shall have the right to exercise the legislative, executive and judicial powers in accordance with the provisions of this Constitution, except for the exclusive powers of the federal authorities contained therein.

Second: The Regional Authority has the right to amend the application of federal law in the region, in the event of a contradiction or conflict between federal law and the law of the region regarding a matter that does not fall within the exclusive competences of the federal authorities.

Third: The regions and governorates shall be allocated a fair share of the revenues collected federally sufficient to carry out their burdens and responsibilities, taking into account their resources and needs, and the proportion of the population in them.

Fourth: Establish offices for regions and governorates in embassies and diplomatic missions to follow up on cultural, social and development affairs.

Fifth: The Regional Government shall be competent in all matters required by the administration of the Region, in particular the establishment and organization of the Internal Security Forces of the Region, such as the police, security and the Guard of the Region. Despite all these articles, the application for the establishment of the region submitted by Diyala Governorate and Salah al-Din Governorate was rejected by the federal government (16) With the exception of the Kurdistan region as a reality imposed on Iraqis by the will of the Kurdish component, and with international support that has been going on for more than two decades, other attempts to repeat the experiment have become mostly unsuccessful, and perhaps the first attempt was made by the political activist and former MP Wael Abdul Latif, where he managed in late 2008. He submitted a formal request to the Independent High Electoral Commission to hold a referendum on the formation of Basra province, but his attempt was unsuccessful because of the inability to obtain 10% of the vote, a stage that, if successful, paves the way for a public referendum.

In 2010, the majority of the members of the provincial council signed a request calling for the transformation of Basra into a province, and sent the request to the Prime Minister Council to issue its orders to the Commission in order to announce a certain period during which the project will be promoted by the political forces supporting it, after which a date is set for a mass referendum in Basra, but the Prime Minister's Council did not officially respond to that request, while the Provincial Council moved in late 2013 again to establish the province of Basra, and loomed Prosecute the Council of Ministers if it ignores or rejects the application for the establishment of the region, which was signed by 12 out of 35 members, but the request was frozen or withdrawn within the framework of political understandings. On October 27, 2011, in response to the Ministry of Higher Education's exclusion of 140 professors and employees from the University of Tikrit, and their dismissal from work in implementation of the Law of the Accountability and Justice Commission, as well as in response to the arbitrary arrests witnessed in the province, the Salah al-Din Provincial Council submitted an official request to form the Salah al-Din region to former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, in order to approve it and refer it to the Electoral Commission to hold a referendum on declaring the province a province, but Maliki rejected this request, and tasked MP Qutaiba al-Jubouri to follow up Topic and discuss ways to solve the crisis.

In Diyala province, the local authorities of Diyala province announced on Monday, 12/12/2011, their intention to turn the province into a province. The people of Diyala have been divided between supporters and opponents of the idea of applying for a region, and supporters say that this call is a reaction to the policy of the central government in Baghdad and its failure to accelerate the establishment of service projects, and its neglect of the provinces, most of which live in a deteriorating service reality. The establishment of the region provides great powers for the local government to manage its administrative and financial affairs away from the domination of the central government.

In conclusion, we affirm that the previous governments of the Abadi government have disrupted the constitution, and Abadi inherited this heavy legacy of constitutional and legal violations, which pose a great challenge to the Abadi government with multiple opportunities, and the upcoming elections may be, one of the possible opportunities, as one of the most important constitutional demands and entitlements.

In the next section, the research will address the Abadi government and the opportunities and challenges of the upcoming elections he faces, so that he can get Iraq out of its constitutional crisis.

Section III

Election Opportunity and Internationalization Theses

We ended from the second section to the conclusion that there is a crisis of constitutional disruption that prevailed in the Iraqi political scene, and Abadi inherited it from his predecessor, and he is still unable to get out of it, to achieve the expected achievement and get Iraq out, not only from the crisis of disrupting the constitution, but also from the loss of the state.

Abadi's challenges as well as opportunities are mounting to achieve the most important political entitlement at the local, regional and international levels, as Iraq's exit from its constitutional crisis and the return of the lost state, would achieve a lost stability since 2003, and this is one of the most important objectives of the international coalition against Daesh, which was formed with the assumption of office by Abadi in August 2014.Iraq has just emerged from the spiral of war on Daesh, which represented a material and human drain whose repercussions will remain for many years, as it represented a great victory for Abadi, and an opportunity he may employ. To win the next election, the timing of which could put Iraq at a crossroads that has not passed through Iraq since 2005.

The timing of holding parliamentary elections in Iraq for three previous occasions represented transitional stages in the history of this country, which has not known stability since the change of its political system in 2003, so the elections of late 2005 were a historic watershed to try to get the country out of the heat of the civil war through the active participation of most of its social groups after the break of the constitution and an interim government, and then came the elections of 2010 that accompanied the US withdrawal from Iraq and the repercussions that remain until the moment in terms of security and politics, and the solution of The date of the 2014 elections and a third of Iraq's territory is in the hands of ISIS after the opening of the border with Syria and the declaration of a transnational state. Hence a new historic critical juncture in 2018 and the accompanying regional and international circumstances that will have an impact on drawing the map of a post-ISIS Iraq.

The ISIS phase in Iraq has imposed on the decision-maker a different internal and external political reality, which can be described as strategic-impact lessons, that may draw a break with the recent past. At the level of domestic politics, the current government, with clear international assistance, was able to rebuild the Iraqi military institution after a near-total collapse that resulted in the fall of a third of Iraq's territory to ISIS, and on international recommendation also Iraq restored its diplomatic and economic relations with its Arab surroundings.

Such developments may draw a political roadmap with new tools and players, whose effects begin with the political environment accompanying the electoral process that decides the fate of the country for the next four years, and this section will try to shed light on the local and regional political environment accompanying the Iraqi elections of 2018, and try to answer questions related to the chances of the Abadi government holding elections or not, and what their implications for the future of Iraq for the next four years.

The Iraqi electoral environment

Iraq is currently going through a political crisis that represents one of the aspects of the struggle for power, and Iraq is waiting for complex elections in very sensitive circumstances, not without an international dimension, and Iraq is part of the features of the Middle East, but the most complex in the stage before going to the polls are the elements of the electoral process in Iraq and the chances of its availability and success.

The process of holding general elections in Iraq is marred by a number of obstacles that are the backbone and pillar of the electoral process, each of which presents a challenge to the Iraqi government and competing political forces to deal with.

Public

The Iraqi public suffers from weakness in the electoral culture, as the circumstances of the emergence of the electoral process did not help them to understand and realize the requirements of political development in its vocabulary related to the state, the nature of the system of government and the foundations of political participation, which is the compass directed to the voter towards the ballot box, against the backgrounds of the political program and its harmony with the needs of the stage, but rushed on two different occasions from the backgrounds of the crisis and Iraqiya and the sharp sectarian polarization that it witnessed, especially in the occasions of 2005 and 2010. This is on the one hand,

On the other hand, the public, especially in the central and southern governorates, suffers from cases of displacement and destruction of cities and the imposition of militia authority on vital areas, which prevents them from convincing them of the usefulness of political participation after the scourge of war and its repercussions, Ahmed Al-Masari, head of the coalition of forces bloc "the Sunni entity in the House of Representatives", Ahmed Al-Masari, stated that «the goal of the elections is to make reforms for the next stage by bringing in real representatives of the Iraqi people with integrity and competence, representing the will of the voter without pressure, and this will not be achieved under the circumstances Current for the stricken governorates.

He continued: "There are more than two million and 900 thousand displaced people living in poor conditions, and they have not been able to return to their liberated cities (from the terrorist organization ISIS), as well as the great destruction that has befallen their homes and areas, and the presence of armed groups affiliated with political parties that control the security file in those cities.17

Some political forces promote the idea of holding elections in safe and stable areas, postponing them in destroyed cities whose people suffer displacement and oppression of displacement, and legally cannot be divided by holding general elections, as stated by a member of the Legal Committee in the House of Representatives Abdul Karim Abtan in one of his media interviews.18

The UN envoy to Iraq, Jan Kubic, referred to security challenges, specifically issues related to the return of displaced persons, and stated in his report to the Security Council that "holding elections while parts of Iraq remain unsafe and large numbers of citizens remain displaced, specifically members of the Sunni component, may raise doubts about the comprehensiveness and credibility of the elections, and thus the acceptance of their results both internally and externally".19

It can be said that the postponement of the elections is justified, and has a moral significance in light of the inability of citizens to participate in the electoral process, and they live in the worst conditions as displaced people in camps or on the ruins of their stricken cities, so how can the electoral program and the candidates of political forces be marketed when they lack a decent living and a free life?

Electoral Commission and Electoral Law

The Iraqi Council of Representatives recently voted to select new members of the Independent High Electoral Commission, which is the most important independent body due to the leading role it exercises in preparing and qualifying for elections in all its aspects, starting from educating the Iraqi voter through the day of voting until the announcement and approval of the results, and the new selection came after a wave of demonstrations that lasted for more than three years demanding the change of those in charge of the Commission and making it completely independent, although nine people were selected to fill senior positions in the Council of Representatives Commissioners and the rest of the formations.

The Commission suffers from many problems that complicate the electoral process in Iraq and can be summarized as follows:

The need for financial allocations of 296 billion dinars to manage the electoral process, which the government cannot provide due to the difficult financial conditions the country is going through.20

The Commission will no longer be able to hold elections in technically stricken areas of the central and southern governorates, as it no longer has voting machines or reliable electoral registers to hold fair elections.21

The Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC) demanded that the PMF have a special register of the institution to be included in the special vote of the armed forces, and the response of the Commission was that it does not have a special statistic that can be relied on by the Commission, and the Commission considered that the vote of the members of the Hashd should be within the general and not private ballot of the security institution.22 In clear violation of the law and the Iraqi Constitution.

With regard to the legal framework for holding elections, the House of Representatives is likely to maintain a system of proportional representation in the distribution of seats with an amendment in the mathematical equation governing the distribution of seats, i.e. to begin by dividing by 1.7 and not 1.4 adopted in the 2014 elections, i.e. adopting the same equation adopted in the amendment to the Law on Provincial Council Elections, an equation that serves the interests of large lists at the expense of small lists. The system of proportional representation that has been the most adopted in many emerging democracies, particularly those that suffer from a sharp societal division, or those that adopt political sectarianism in the formation of their political parties and entities, remains optimal for Iraq, and risking the adoption of another system cannot guarantee results that reflect diversity and proportional representation in representative institutions, with the resulting monopoly on power, will certainly lead to disastrous results that could exacerbate division and conflict instead of to work to reduce it.23

The Electoral Commission began its technical advice in the management of the electoral process in clear violation of the Law on Parties allowing a single party to enter more than one list. Dr. Bassel Hussein, a professor of political science at Nahrain University, previously wrote an explanation of the kind of irregularities that reflect the profession of politicizing laws and paragraphs of the constitution by the political decision-maker in the Iraqi state, saying: "I do not doubt for a moment that this decision came in response to the demands of the Dawa Party and to resolve the problem between former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki and Haider al-Abadi, and the origin of the violation goes back to the text of the law of parties in its articles (29) and (30):

Article 29: First: Parties or political organizations shall be free to ally themselves to form a political alliance.

Second: Allied political parties or political organizations submit the alliance document to the Department of Political Parties or Organizations for registration in the Register of Political Alliances, provided that the document includes the name, distinctive logo, names of allied political parties or organizations, the objectives of the alliance and the pattern of organization.

Article 30 – The political party or organization may merge with any other political party or organization to form a new political party or organization, and the registration procedures shall be followed in accordance with the provisions of this Law.

This means that according to the law, parties are allowed to form coalitions or mergers among themselves, but it does not allow them to defect, and what the Commission has decided is only an explanation that the law has been silent on the issue of fission and this interpretation is misplaced and an attempt to employ a politician and submit to the will of political actors in the Iraqi political scene.

There is no doubt that this decision will be comfortable for the Dawa Party itself, because it meets the ambition of former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki and current Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi to head an electoral list, and it will also be welcomed by other political parties that want to ally with Haider al-Abadi away from Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, and in a way that is contrary to other political parties, albeit to a lesser extent, that want to ally with Maliki away from Abadi.

But what should be noted here is that from the Commission's current statements and actions, we can discern the fact that this Commission would be the worst if it continued to function in this way.

C. The weapons of ideological parties and militias

Iraqi militias have political power in addition to their military and security authority, and then achieve a parliamentary majority represented by the State of Law coalition led by Nouri al-Maliki, the most prominent ally of the Popular Mobilization Forces, which gives them political and legal cover through which to move to confuse the work of the government and its political orientations, both at home and abroad. The Popular Mobilization factions seek to consolidate and employ their military gains for the next electoral period, to be the egg of the dome in drawing the features of the political map by employing their weapons and political forces in support of achieving the principle of the political majority and naming the next prime minister, as always stated by their military leaders.

The most difficult challenge lies in not allowing parties with armed wings to participate in the elections, and this is a good factor and a correct step towards isolating armed movements from parliamentary representation and at the same time ensuring that weapons are not included in the electoral influence or the employment of armed groups to exert pressure and thus influence the results of the elections, but the issue is not as easy as imaginable, everyone knows that the majority of Iraqi political forces have armed factions and wings and the matter is not born today but some of them before the occupation of Iraq, and some of them After the political change in 2003, which participated in most of the past elections and are major forces in the political scene, dealing with them is very difficult, the other thing and after the issuance of the fatwa of the Jihad al-Kafa'i and the size of security volunteerism and the regularity of armed factions of the Popular Mobilization Authority, most of them under the umbrella of political parties, and the new decision prohibits the participation of armed wings, does the decision apply to the Popular Mobilization Authority as an official military institution?

Eleven new parties and movements formed by militias were approved, according to a senior official at Iraq's High Electoral Commission, and 62 armed figures gained the right to run for election after breaking the penalty of Article II of the Commission's law, which prohibits the candidacy of military personnel and members of the Internal Security Forces and the Popular Mobilization Forces. "They are out of this clause after officially announcing their resignation from the crowd," he explained.24

Regional and international conditions

The Middle East region is at an important juncture that may reshape its maps, with some files close to being resolved and others corrected, and Iraq is undoubtedly part of the vision of the new Middle East and an important actor within the framework of its formation.

The move to nominate Abadi as head of the Iraqi government in 2014 was an important coup in correcting the course of Iraq, which almost escaped American influence, with the exacerbation of Iranian influence on political and security decision-making, especially under Nouri al-Maliki, the former prime minister, but the insistence of the US embassy in Baghdad on Abadi and directing the compass of Kurdish and Sunni political forces with him, drew the features of a new situation whose features later appeared in diplomatic and military forms, the most prominent of which urged Iraq to open up Iraq towards its Arab surroundings In general and the Gulf in particular, the Washington-led international coalition stands with the Iraqi military establishment in the war on ISIS, and its keenness to rehabilitate the army and its military doctrine from east to west.

Many regional files interact in an ascending pattern, and their results have a clear impact on the Iraqi elections and draw their outputs in another way, and a researcher may ask about the nature of the relationship of regional and international interactions with the Iraqi elections and this is a valid question, but the intention of pointing out that the impact is limited to the results of the elections and the mechanism of employing them to serve the requirements of the next stage at the level of the Middle East, repeating the scenario of pressure towards Abadi in exchange for the removal of Maliki despite the fact that the ballot boxes and the parliamentary majority confirm the latter's eligibility for the post of prime minister.

The facts of the return of the US military on the ground with military bases deployed in Iraq, specifically in the Sunni Arab areas, confirm that the strategic plan will not be limited to the security presence only, but there will be employment and impact on the product of the political process and its interactions to serve the requirements of regional and international interaction taking place in several directions.

Regional interactions and their relationship to the Iraqi situation can be limited to the following:

First: Iranian Protests:

From late 2017 until the time of writing, Iranian cities have witnessed major popular protests, demanding the overthrow of the regime of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and an end to the export policies of the Iranian Revolution, which cost Tehran billions at a time when the country suffers from difficult economic and living conditions, with a repression of freedoms and severe security restrictions.

A follower of the course of the protests indicates the possibility of their escalation into a major uprising or its continuation at the pace of demonstrations that confuse the regime and remain a source of concern for it, but on the other hand, the talk about the repercussions of these protests is focused on Iran's foreign policy based on the principle of exporting the revolution under the constitution towards the countries of the region, specifically in Iraq.

The Iraqi government has distanced itself from interfering in the Iranian demonstrations and has not issued a position in support of the authorities in their suppression of protests or betrayal and confirms the existence of an international will to overthrow the Iranian regime by supporting the popular movement at home, but realistically the form of the relationship between Iran and Iraq after 2003 was not built on sober diplomatic foundations and mutual interests and respect within international norms, but rather the policy of unilateral servitude that is in Iran's interests absolutely at the security and economic levels, and Iran flooded the Iraqi market. It linked its local security system to the Iraqi system by forming ideologically linked Iraqi militias that turned into a regular army parallel to the military institution under the name of the Popular Mobilization Forces.

The Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) are the military arm of political groupings that have their political representation in the Iraqi parliament and government, and will run in the elections with sporadic formations and names and intend, as their leaders always declare, that the Popular Mobilization Forces will form the next Iraqi government and name the next prime minister after achieving the political majority that corresponds to the proposals of former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki. Thus, Iran plans to play a comprehensive role in overturning the Iraqi political equation in force since the change of 2003 based on quotas and political consensus between the three constituent forces to form a government, to a government of a Shiite political majority that makes the decision, legislative and executive without opposition to anyone in the absence of the principle of political opposition in the Iraqi case.

The success of the Iranian protest variant in changing the regime in Iran and disrupting its most important clauses, which are the export of the revolution, represents a radical coup in the Iraqi equation and a collapse of the existing Shiite system in power, especially those that are in favor of Wilayat al-Faqih in exchange for the emergence of another Shiite current linked to the Najaf authority that will be the heir to the radical Shiite currents associated with the Iranian leader Ali Khamenei. This may represent an American-European-Arab desire to deal with Iraq's Shiites and employ them in Iraq's post-Iranian protest landscape.

Iraq and its Arab surroundings

The United States of America made a recommendation to the GCC system, Jordan and Egypt that the need to open up to the Abadi government in the last third of last year would be a suitable ground for ending an Iraqi-Arab rupture in favor of Iran and its radical orientations based on the principle of exporting the revolution.

Western sources believe that Abadi is aware of the nature of the new international trends towards Iran, and closely monitors the military developments on the ground in Syria that are working to undermine Tehran's influence there, and has American-sourced data that has long encouraged him to communicate with Riyadh and develop the relationship with the Gulf countries. What Abadi heard in Riyadh at the time will be listened to by the Iranian leadership, for whom it has become clear that the spotlight on the Arab and international levels is now focused on its subversive role in the region (25).

There are those who expect the emergence of a new Shia-Islamic current to run in the 2018 elections, open to the Arab world and seeking to neutralize the Iranian role, as Iraq today considers the need for leaders who speak against sectarianism and Iran's role in provoking it, corruption and theft of public money, and emphasize the importance of reform, and today Sadr seems the most prominent voice for this approach.

The messages addressed to other Arab countries are also important, namely that it is inconceivable that Iraq should remain isolated from its natural surroundings, the Arab world. If Saudi Arabia, with its political weight and other dimensions, is open to Iraq, others should take similar steps. In practice, influence has begun on other Arab countries, including Egypt, which sent its foreign minister, Sameh Shoukry, to Baghdad.

The Arab countries' embrace of moderate Shiite currents represents a historic opportunity to influence the map of the upcoming elections and transform it from an Iranian map that emphasizes Iraq's dependence on Iran to an Iraqi map complementary to the upcoming Middle Eastern regional scene.

U.S. Presence in Iraq

The Islamic State's control of a third of Iraq in June 2014 is blamed on the failure of the Obama administration to secure a presence of U.S. troops in Iraq after 2011. The occupation of large Iraqi territories by ISIS that includes large provinces and cities in 2014 and its control over almost half of the area of Iraq, became the key to reoccupying again because the rest of the American forces after the withdrawal are not large military forces but a group of centers tasked with fighting armed organizations, and with the occupation and expansion of Daesh the American intervention was not real and serious in addressing it and its activities were limited to show sorties in hitting ISIS, and apparently the United States, which was late in supporting Abadi's government against ISIS had several strategic reasons, including(26):

Washington's desire to teach Iraq a lesson for its refusal to establish U.S. military bases on its soil.

He sought to highlight the weakness of Iran's military effort and the inability of Tehran and Baghdad to find air and intelligence firepower to contain the Islamic State's advance.

And its desire for the Iraqi administration to acquiesce to all its requests that will come later.

The U.S. Command began gradually sending military forces to Iraq from mid-2014 until the end of 2016 and launched the name of Operation "Inherent Solution to Terrorism," which the Americans described as helping Iraq fight terrorism through advisory and training support to Iraqi forces, and the operations of sending reinforcements arriving in Iraq were as follows:27

The first batch of 170 soldiers was sent in June

On December 21, 2014, 1,000 soldiers were dispatched from Fort Bragg, California, to train 12 newly formed Iraqi brigades to fight ISIS.

450 military personnel were sent on March 25, 2015 to Anbar.

The total number reached 3800 soldiers in March

50 U.S. advisers arrived in November 2015 at the Ain al-Assad base in Anbar.

600 soldiers were sent on June 29, 2016 in preparation for the battle for Mosul.

100-200 Marines-Delta troops arrived in April 2016 at Camp Makhmour north of Mosul.

Dozens of engineers and technicians arrived in September 2016 to rehabilitate the Qayyarah air base near Mosul.

The number of U.S. military personnel in September 2016 was 4,460, most of them at the Qayyarah air base.

Current troop levels are approaching 5,000, and from the conduct of military operations and monitoring of U.S. military reinforcements, the presence of military forces in 3 major air bases has become:

Baghdadi's Ain al-Assad air base in western Anbar, home to 300 U.S. military advisers.

Balad Air Base in Salah al-Din province north of Baghdad.

Qayyarah Air Base in Mosul is the center of operations to liberate Mosul from ISIS, where the number of US forces is estimated at 2,000 Marines, intelligence, infantry, and the Corps of Engineers, in addition to Apache aircraft.

From this growing military presence of its bases in Iraq, the United States seeks to influence the strategic security decision in the Middle East, which needs Iraqi political ground that accepts this new reality and links it to Iraqi national security, and this requires a political environment in Baghdad that is consistent with American confrontations without opposition.

From here it is clear that Abadi's chances and challenges facing him to win the next elections.Every chance for Abadi may represent a challenge to his opponents in the Popular Mobilization Forces and vice versa.This is brief that the chances and challenges of the two parties may be similar and equal, except that the Hashd system is a system hostile to the international system, and this may represent the most important opportunity for Abadi.The US military presence, Arab support and Iranian protests are an opportunity for Abadi and a challenge to the Popular Mobilization, but the presence of 55 militias affiliated with Wilayat al-Faqih represents a major challenge for Abadi, and it is spread in more than 14 Governorate.

fourthly

Proposals for the internationalization of the Iraqi crisis

The Iraqi government and other political forces declare their adherence to the constitution, which provides for the holding of elections every four years,28 within the timings confirmed by the constitution, while the Iraqi legislator has missed the constitutional handling of exceptions and circumstances that may lead the decision-maker in the government and parliament to postpone parliamentary elections, which is the conclusion of the Iraqi crisis currently emerging and for which the political forces have not found a solution.

Throughout its recent history, the constitution and the law in Iraq have been nothing more than a line written by those in power, erasable whenever their interest so requires, and more dangerously, usable and interpreted in the way they also decide. This fact was entrenched during the years following the American occupation of Iraq, where the Constitution was only a political tool, used by the most powerful political actor in its political conflicts, and there is no room here to take stock of the many explicit and implicit constitutional violations that we have witnessed throughout this stage, but we will try to stand exclusively at an Iraqi phenomenon par excellence, a phenomenon that turns the Federal Supreme Court into a tool used by the dominant political actor today to resolve conflicts that it is unable to resolve politically.

There is no possibility to talk about postponing parliamentary elections because the Iraqi constitution defines the mandate of the House of Representatives in such a way as to prevent the extension of the work of the House of Representatives in any way; Article 56/I of the Constitution stipulates that "the duration of the electoral cycle of the House of Representatives shall be four calendar years, beginning with its first session, and ending at the end of the fourth year." Therefore, the postponement will mean the dissolution of the House of Representatives and the survival of the federal government full powers according to the interpretation that governed the work of the government of former Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki between May 2010 and November 2010, Maliki refused at the time that his government, with the absence of a parliament, be a caretaker government, and it is clear that this interpretation will govern the government of Haider al-Abadi in the event of a postponement of the elections, especially with a gap in the Iraqi constitution that allows such interpretation. He referred to what he called the "day-to-day caretaker" government in two cases: the withdrawal of confidence in the Council of Ministers or its President (Article 61/VIII/d), or the dissolution of the House of Representatives (Article 64/II), and did not address the status of the Council of Ministers in the event of the expiry of the mandate of the House of Representatives.

Constitutional jurisprudence and logic required that the Council of Ministers be dealt with in the event of the end of the session of the Chamber of Deputies just as it would be dealt with in the event of the dissolution of the Council, but this did not happen, and therefore no one can imagine that the interpretation of the Government would be different this time, especially since the existing Federal Court, politicized and illegitimate, has the exclusive authority to interpret the Constitution and does not depart in its decisions from the will of the most powerful political actor, who is here the Prime Minister.29

The political actor's talk about the elections is concentrated in two tracks: the first talks about stricken provinces and a displaced public that is illogical and immoral in such circumstances to launch electoral propaganda and urge them to participate politically, and the second track emphasizes the "sacred" constitutional timings and there is no room to postpone the elections, and the origin of such an exaggeration in the characterization of constitutional timings is the fear of a political opponent who occupies the position of prime minister who will get absolute powers without parliamentary oversight, perhaps employed politically and electorally to his advantage later and this is what he fears They opposed Haider al-Abadi as part of their characterization of the problem. So the problem is Abadi's powers to postpone the elections and dissolve the House of Representatives automatically after the end of its constitutionally defined term.

Vice President Nouri al-Maliki raised a perception of the Iraqi situation in the event that it is decided to postpone the elections without qualifying a constitutional document or interference from the Federal Supreme Court, saying: "The purpose of postponing the elections is to bring the country into a constitutional vacuum, in preparation for the formation of an emergency government away from the current government; with the aim of excluding the Dawa Party There is an international resolution to be issued by the Security Council in which Iraq will be placed under Chapter VI of the Charter of the United Nations, and calls for the formation of an emergency government under the pretext of running the country. Temporarily".30

The threat of this scenario represents a collapse of the rules of the political process in Iraq and its reconstruction with new political data, and certainly an international decision-maker when he "seriously" seeks to put Iraq under international tutelage, he wants in one way or another to repeat the scenarios of the Governing Council or the interim government and to establish new rules for political action in Iraq.

It is important to refer to the definition of international trusteeship as an international political legal term, which means the subordination of one territory to the administration of another State, under special conditions contained in an agreement concluded between them and supervised by the United Nations Trusteeship Council.31

The primary purpose of the idea of trusteeship was to promote the political, economic and social progress of the Territories and their development towards self-government and self-determination. The regime has also promoted respect for human rights and fundamental freedoms and recognition of the independence of the peoples of the world (32).

In light of Maliki's media talk about the intentions to create a constitutional vacuum and place Iraq under international tutelage in its propaganda and electoral dimensions, does Iraq really need internationalization to correct the course of the political process?

Needless to say, the Iraqi file can be described as internationalized since 2003 until now, and therefore internationalization has a number of indicators:

The tasks of the international coalition in the war on terror in Iraq have not ended.

The U.S. military returns to Iraq by expanding its military bases.

The large-scale power struggle between the United States and its allies with Iran on the Iraqi scene, and the attempt to resolve that conflict in Washington's favor.

The Iraqi sovereign decision is a relative issue that needs regional consensus, before it can be a purely internal matter.

The American keenness on the return of the Arab and Gulf political actor to Iraq and the start of a new page of diplomatic, economic and security relations, to make a break with the policy of isolating Iraq from its Arab surroundings by aligning itself with Iran.

The United States, with Haider al-Abadi as prime minister, has dealt with Iraq with a new path based on a break with Obama's strategy of withdrawing from Iraq and not directly engaging in military files in the Middle East, and has documented Trump new direction with the strategy of returning to Iraq with the duality of security and politics, which ensures that the two tracks are corrected in a parallel manner.

The United States of America formulates its strategic security and political decision in Iraq in a way that does not intersect with the constants of the Iraqi reality such as elections, the constitution and the three authorities, because in the end it deals with a general international situation that it intends to formulate in one way or another and Iraq within it.

The commander of the international coalition forces, Paul Funk, confirmed at a press conference in the capital Baghdad that the coalition forces are present in Iraq at the request of the Iraqi government "and will remain there until the situation there stabilizes, where they will focus on training the Iraqi army and police forces to help them establish defensive lines."

The international coalition led by the United States of America controls Iraqi airspace and controls the movement of aircraft in it both acceptably and rejected, as the parliamentary security and defense committee in the Iraqi parliament confirms that the international coalition imposes its absolute control over the international airspace of Iraq.34

U.S. forces have worked to bolster their long-standing presence in Iraq by establishing large military bases in three locations. According to information provided by Iraqi officers and officials, US forces have already begun to transform the Ain al-Assad positions west of Anbar and Qayyarah south of Nineveh into two large military bases, while discussing with KRG officials the idea of turning Erbil airport into a military base, or establishing an alternative base in the Rabia border area with Syria.

Informed sources say the United States is looking for a large air base in the region to be an alternative to Incirlik base in Turkey, adding that the closure of the Turkish base during the coup attempt in Turkey on July 15, 2016, prompted the Americans to look for an alternative. Since the start of the Global Coalition's operations against ISIS in the summer of 2014, hundreds of U.S. military personnel have been pouring into Iraq to serve as advisers to Iraqi forces. The US military presence in Iraq reached its peak ahead of the start of operations to retake the city of Mosul, while sources said that the number of US military personnel in Iraq reaches 10,000 people.35

The American recommendation to the Gulf Cooperation Council countries, Egypt and Jordan to open up to Iraq and restore diplomatic relations with it can be considered a pattern of internationalization of the Iraqi issue and an attempt to redraw its effects in line with the American orientation towards the Middle East under President Trump, and notes that the American recommendation to open up to Iraq is made through the Shiite political actor for the purpose of employing it away from the Iranian vision of Iraq and the region.

Ammar al-Hakim, leader of the Wisdom Movement, and Muqtada al-Sadr, leader of the Sadrist Movement in Saudi Arabia, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Jordan at the highest levels, in addition to a historic visit by Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi to Riyadh at the invitation of Saudi King Salman bin Abdulaziz, confirms the intention to internationalize the Iraqi file regionally and in the United States in its corrective sense and not in the sense of ending the structure of the political process and rebuilding it again.

The hypothesis of internationalization of the Iraqi crisis in its classical sense refers to dealing with a constitutional vacuum governmental and parliamentary and then imposing a UN role to restore international peace and security as stipulated in Article VI of the United Nations, the main objective of which is to reduce Iranian influence over Iraq and restrict it in various political, economic and social roles, and to return Iraq to the era of an interim or transitional government.

If the United States of America strategically acknowledges that that external action towards Iraq should stop through the policy of containing Iranian influence, Washington will achieve a number of strategic objectives with one stone, and the popular movement in Tehran and other cities may be one of the forms of that containment of Iranian influence.

What Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has revealed by taking the battle inside Iran represents one of the features of the US policy of containment36 of Iranian influence in the Middle East, to encircle Iran, isolate it from its areas of influence and occupy it at home from abroad, and this will not be through a series of military alliances and the occupation of the adversary with crises at home and prevent the export of its revolution abroad.

Two military alliances operating in parallel and in high-level coordination represented by the Arab coalition and the international coalition are active in the Middle East, both of which agree on a strategic vision against the Iranian threat and the repercussions of its influence on the region, and the strategic threat it poses to its stability and the security of its peoples, and the field of activity of these two alliances on a small geostrategic area starting from Syria in the north to Yemen in the south, confirms the intention of the leadership of the two allies to impose a new political and security reality on the region confirming the intention to contain Iran and its political actors, specifically in Iraq. Yemen, Syria and Lebanon.

The adoption of a policy of containment of Iranian influence in the Middle East, despite being a long-term policy, is a logical, acceptable and alternative policy to the concepts of international trusteeship, especially since the personality of the president Trump is considered modernist and does not deal with classical terms but believes in the superiority of decisions and the supremacy of American policies and what can be described as "Trumpian" orientations and visions.

What is stated in the context of the search for opportunities to hold elections and their logical alternatives can be summarized as the fact that both opportunities are available and have their own objective conditions and tools, if the elections are held in difficult humanitarian conditions and complex electoral technical, it is possible to refer to previous circumstances more complex than the ratification of the constitution until the local and 2014 parliamentary elections and the political process proceeded with regional and international will, and if the political actor goes towards postponing the elections for a short or long time, the constitutional argument will be available to the government with the jelly of the relationship and its flexibility. Between the Constitutional Court and the executive institution, reference was made to the existence of a previous judicial decision that could be relied upon to legitimize the legal status of Abadi and his government.

As for the internationalization of the crisis as a third alternative solution to holding elections or not, the Iraqi crisis has been internationalized since 2004 until the moment and interacts right and left as seen by the regional and international actor and not under a local sovereign decision issued by the institutions of the Iraqi state, and the features of internationalization and the active external presence in the decision can be recalled on political occasions such as the Iraqi Constitution, the Interim Government, the 2010 elections, the 2014 elections, and security events such as the sectarian war in 2006-2008, the war on ISIS 2014.

The end

It is clear from the study that there was a major constitutional crisis in Iraq in 2003. This crisis was embodied in the deliberate disruption of the Iraqi constitution that was voted on in 2005 and the conflict over the shape of the new Iraq, its identity, role and political system behind this disruption practiced by Maliki during his term of office for two electoral cycles 2006-2014 and the result of the conflict over the new Iraq was that its reality became contrary to its written constitution. Abadi, who became prime minister in August 2014 after 44 percent of Iraq fell to ISIS, inherited this constitutional crisis. Abadi has so far, despite his victory over ISIS and containing the repercussions of the 2017 Kurdistan Region referendum, been unable to overcome this crisis. In light of the ongoing internationalization of the crisis and the unlimited support for Abadi, his victory in the upcoming elections may be a suitable practical opportunity to get out of the crisis of constitutional disruption to activate the constitution, especially in light of the start of Iranian protests that may grant him with his victory in the next elections in the achievement of the last political merit. Will Abadi succeed in this or will he fail? Let Iraq enter into a more severe crisis.

Search margins

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Dr. Munther Al-Fadl, Basic Principles of the Iraqi Constitution / Legal and Political Reading, https://www.dorar-aliraq.net/threads.

https://www.facebook.com/permalink.php?id=243429682453410&story_fbid=295543543908690 .

Judge Zuhair Kazim Abboud, The Right to Life, Security and Freedom in the Iraqi Constitution, Al-Sabah Newspaper, 29/5/2016, http://www.alsabaah.iq/ArticleShow.aspx?ID=117147.

Ibid.

http://www.iraqicp.com/index.php/sections/variety/17621-2014-07-29-15-37-22 .

https://www.dorar-aliraq.net/threads/ .

A critical and analytical study on the Iraqi Constitution 2005, http://www.hdf-iq.org/ar.

Prof. Tayseer Abdul Jabbar Al-Alusi, Preliminary Human Rights Report on Secret Prisons, Torture and Arbitrary Arrests in Iraq, Contemporary Sumerian Tablets, http://www.somerian-slates.com/2017/05/07/4427/.

Iraqi Constitution. http://www.al-akhbar.com/node/34081 .

The Iraqi Constitution is considered. It is seen https://www.newiraqcenter.com .

https://www.newiraqcenter.com/2017/07/25/%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%81%D8%AF%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D9%81%D9%8A-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B9%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%82/

Interview on Al-Quds Al-Arabi newspaper http://www.alquds.co.uk/?p=845263

To follow the dialogue of MP Abtan https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3sh33nDgEDo

To view the following link https://aawsat.com/home/article/1096921/%D9%85%D8%B7%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D8%A8%D8%A5%D8%B1%D8%AC%D8%A7%D8%A1-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A7%D9%86%D8%AA%D8%AE%D8%A7%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B9%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%82%D9%8A%D8%A9

Statement of the Board of Commissioners in the session of the House of Representatives on 4/1/2018.

Statement of the Board of Commissioners in the session of the House of Representatives on 4/1/2018.

Statement of the Chairman of the Board of Commissioners in the House of Representatives on 4/1/2018.

To view the following link http://www.alquds.co.uk/?p=840055

For more information see the following link https://www.alaraby.co.uk/politics/2017/12/25/%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B9%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%82-62-%D9%85%D8%B3%D8%A4%D9%88%D9%84%D8%A7-%D9%85%D9%84%D9%8A%D8%B4%D9%8A%D8%A7%D9%88%D9%8A%D8%A7-%D9%85%D8%B1%D8%B4%D8%AD%D8%A7-%D9%84%D8%A7%D9%86%D8%AA%D8%AE%D8%A7%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%AA-2018-1

To view the following link http://www.alarab.co.uk/article/%D8%A7%D8%AE%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%B1/112341/%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B9%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%AF%D9%8A-%D9%8A%D8%A8%D8%AD%D8%AB-%D8%B9%D9%86-%D8%AA%D9%81%D9%87%D9%85-%D8%A5%D9%8A%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%86%D9%8A-%D9%84%D8%A7%D9%86%D9%81%D8%AA%D8%A7%D8%AD-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B9%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%82-%D8%B9%D9%84%D9%89-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%85%D8%AD%D9%8A%D8%B7-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B9%D8%B1%D8%A8%D9%8A

To view the following link: https://ankasam.org/ar/%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%88%D8%AC%D9%88%D8%AF-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B9%D8%B3%D9%83%D8%B1%D9%8A-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A7%D9%85%D8%B1%D9%8A%D9%83%D9%8A-%D9%81%D9%8A-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B9%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%82/

An American magazine specialized in Middle Eastern security files http://www.digitaljournal.com/

Please refer to the Iraqi Constitution from the following link http://www.cabinet.iq/PageViewer.aspx?id=2

Dr. Yahya Al-Kubaisi's article on Al-Quds Al-Arabi newspaper http://www.alquds.co.uk/?p=835885.

The news is available from the Baghdad Post page at the following link: http://www.thebaghdadpost.com/ar/story/41513/%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%85%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%83%D9%8A-%D9%85%D8%AE%D8%B7%D8%B7-%D8%A3%D9%85%D8%B1%D9%8A%D9%83%D9%8A-%D9%84%D9%88%D8%B6%D8%B9-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B9%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%82-%D8%AA%D8%AD%D8%AA-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%88%D8%B5%D8%A7%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AF%D9%88%D9%84%D9%8A%D8%A9

Read the news at the following link http://www.aljazeera.net/encyclopedia/conceptsandterminology/2015/10/12/%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%88%D8%B5%D8%A7%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AF%D9%88%D9%84%D9%8A%D8%A9

UN http://www.un.org/ar/decolonization/its.shtml Website

News... http://www.alliraqnews.com/modules/news/article.php?storyid=68739

To review the following link http://aliraqnews.com/%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A7%D9%85%D9%86-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%86%D9%8A%D8%A7%D8%A8%D9%8A%D8%A9%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A7%D8%AC%D9%88%D8%A7%D8%A1-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B9%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%82%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D8%AA%D8%AD%D8%AA-%D8%B3/

You can see the following link http://www.alarab.co.uk/article/%D8%A7%D8%AE%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%B1/99625/%D9%85%D8%AE%D8%B7%D8%B7%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D8%A3%D9%85%D9%8A%D8%B1%D9%83%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D9%84%D8%A8%D9%82%D8%A7%D8%A1-%D8%B9%D8%B3%D9%83%D8%B1%D9%8A-%D8%AF%D8%A7%D8%A6%D9%85-%D9%81%D9%8A-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B9%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%82

Containment Policy: Formulated by George Kennan, an American political expert, in 1947 This policy is based on the idea of establishing a series of alliances and military bases, with the aim of encircling and isolating the Soviet Union. And tighten the noose around him, and prevent the spread of his influence and ideology to neighboring countries and to the rest of the world.

Author Dr.Omar Abdul Sattar Mahmoud

الكاتب د.عمر عبدالستار محمود